We live in the era of climate change.
We've written before about climate foresight and the need to move beyond denial into action. Well, we now have a stunning regional example of the kinds of problems we can expect to face.
49 leading scientists have come together to prepare a "Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest." [PDF] It documents in some detail the kinds of changes we can expect in this region over the next 10 - 50 years.
It's pretty grim reading. On the other hand, it's also pretty darn useful to get a grip on the kinds of transformations climate change is likely to wreak on a specific place, if only as a tool for helping us think through what kinds of responses we need to plan.
Here's the highlights tape:
There's been a 13° F rise in temperatures across the region since 1975. We've lost 50% of the snowpack in the Cascades in the last fifty years. The sea is rising and the forests burning.
"Scientists have intermediate certainty that average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will continue to increase in response to global climate change. Assessments suggest that the average warming will be approximately 2.7° F by 2030 and 5.4° F. by 2050. These projected increases are highly likely to result in a higher elevation treeline, longer growing seasons, longer fire seasons, earlier animal and plant breeding, longer and more intense allergy season and changes in vegetation zones." Remember the Wenatchee fires? Get used to 'em.
"Sea level is very certain to continue to rise ... maximum wave heights will likely also increase, resulting in increasing erosion in coastal areas. It is very certain that ocean circulation will continue to change in response to ocean-atmospheric processes. ...It is uncertain whether these changes will have adverse impacts such as more frequent occurrences of the low-oxygen (dead zone) events seen in 2002 and 2004." Estuaries and near-shore habitat will get hammered.
Remember, these scientists aren't just saying these things could happen, they're saying this is what's likely to happen.
Remember, too, that while these projections are specific to the Northwest, comparable changes of one sort or another (some less extreme, many possibly worse) will occur elsewhere. Your weather's gonna get weird too.
This is the world we now live in. What are we going to do about it?
(Oh, and, once again if you're one of those right-wingers who still attacks the validity of climate science, do us both a favor and go do some research before spouting off in our comments section.)
