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Choose Your Scenario
Jamais Cascio, 1 Nov 05

Notice of two different sets of scenarios popped up this last week. Royal Dutch Shell, the organization that drove the development of corporate scenario planning, and the UK's Energy Saving Trust, an environmental non-profit, have each produced scenarios of what the early 2020s might hold. The two sets of scenarios are quite different, but make for interesting comparisons.

In Jet Stream, Shell gives three scenarios: Low Trust Globalization emphasizes security and efficiency; Open Doors emphasizes efficiency and social cohesion; and Flags emphasizes security and social cohesion. Open Doors is clearly the most WorldChanging-friendly scenario, and it's heartening to see that Shell seems to like it best, too. The full set of scenarios is only available for purchase, but the executive summary (PDF) gives a good sense of how the scenarios play out.

The Energy Saving Trust, in 2020 Futures: Energy and Waste in an Age of Excess, gives us two different scenarios: Back to Basics is a kind of collapse-lite, with power and water rationing, skyrocketing fuel prices, and the wholesale abandonment of suburbia; the Alternate Sustainable Future depends upon a near-term shift to high-efficiency energy use, and reads like they pulled pages right off of WorldChanging, with distributed power, prefab homes, green roofs, and carbon trading. As of now, only a summary page is available; I've written in requesting a copy of the full scenarios.

(Shell: Thanks, Eric Boyd; EST: Thanks, City Hippy)

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Comments

Yes, scnerios almost appear to be the hot thing for this year. If you need more development scenerios:

http://psdblog.worldbank.org/psdblog/2005/08/more_developmen.html

Looking forward is also normally a good place to: http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/lookingforward/links/scenarios.htm


Posted by: Pablo on 1 Nov 05



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