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Happy (Belated) Peak Oil Day!
Jamais Cascio, 25 Nov 05

Reasonable people may disagree, but Princeton geology professor emeritus Ken Deffeyes, author of 2001's Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage and 2005's Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (sense a theme?), stated on his blog in early 2004:

Although it is a bit silly, we can now pick a day to celebrate passing the top of the mathematically smooth Hubbert curve: Nov 24, 2005. It falls right smack dab on top of Thanksgiving Day 2005. It sounds a little sick to observe a gloomy day, but in San Francisco they still observe April 18 as the anniversary of the 1906 earthquake.

That's right -- according to one of the more preeminent peak oilers, yesterday was the day the world saw its maximum oil production. Probably.

The reality is that oil peaking is not a smooth curve, of course. Unexpected discoveries, technology improvements, and the like will sporadically increase output, even after the decline has truly begun. And, as we've noted in the past, peak oil matters most when demand exceeds supply. The best defense against peak oil nightmares is to stop using so damn much of the stuff. We know how to move to a cleaner, greener, higher-efficiency civilization; the time to do so is now.


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Christian millennialists used to set dates for the second coming of Christ. They would sometimes gather on those dates in loud and prolonged prayer and repentence sessions in caves or other secure structures. When the day passed and Christ did not return, it was often the end of the denomination, or at least the leadership that called the date. If oil production continues to rise, I heartily wish the same for our modern, secular, false prophets.

Posted by: TM Lutas on 27 Nov 05

Christian millenialists are still setting the dates for the second coming...and World oil production (new discoveries) has been falling for sometime.
Christianity is a religion...oil is tangible and IS run out. That doesn't require you to be a prophet...just a human being without blinders on.

Posted by: Yogi on 27 Nov 05

Most of the time the millenialists emerged claiming their faith had saved them.

Posted by: Daniel Haran on 27 Nov 05

I believe Deffeyes view although is realistic is cutting the peak oi ldate a little bit close isnt it. "Secretary General of OPEC Sheikh Ahmad Fahd Al Sabah said here Saturday that the oil producers believe that oil prices in the range of dlrs 35-55 are reasonable in the current market conditions" SO Deffeyes little assumption may be incorrect, I dunno.

Posted by: David on 11 Dec 05



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