As most of you know, this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which just ended officially (even if the Atlantic hurricanes haven't noticed), was the most active on record. What you might not have heard, however, is that all National Weather Service predictions were for Epsilon to weaken instead of getting stronger. This year's hurricane season wasn't just stronger and more active than anyone expected, it was also weirder.
This point is driven home by the latest update on Epsilon published by the National Hurricane Center at NOAA. I've reproduced the discussion here in its entirety:
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR. EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU? FORECASTER AVILA
When the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are visibly disturbed by the progress of a storm, you know things have gotten bad.
